MEPS FORECASTS NEAR-RECORD GLOBAL STAINLESS STEEL PRODUCTION IN 2010

27. Feb. 2010

Global crude stainless steel production for 2009 is expected to total 24.7 million tonnes. This corresponds to a decline of 4.6 percent from the result in the previous calendar year.

MEPS' forecast for the outturn in 2010 is 28 million tonnes - just 0.2 million tonnes shy of the all-time high achieved in 2006. However, this does not represent equally good news for producers in all regions. The predicted EU output of 6.9 million tonnes this year - nearly one million tonnes more than in 2009 - is 26.4 percent less than the 2006 result and the forecast tonnage for Japan is only 76.9 percent of the outcome four years ago. Meanwhile, the anticipated figure of 9.6 million tonnes for China and Russia signifies growth of 73 percent over the same period.

Japanese production picked up in the second half of 2009, buoyed by recovering automotive and domestic appliance manufacturing. Operations are expected to continue at a similar rate, resulting in a 22.4 percent, year-on-year, increase in crude stainless production.

Activity in the United States was very poor in the first six months of last year, bringing about a third consecutive annual reduction in output. Business has expanded since then and further, moderate growth is expected to yield a total of 2.15 million tonnes in 2010, which is 20.4 percent more than the 2009.

The total crude stainless steel outturn for South Korea for 2009 is estimated at 1.61 million tonnes - up by around 2 percent on the 2008 outcome. The country's leading producer, Posco, is aiming for a 22 percent, year-on-year, hike in production. This will contribute, MEPS predicts, to a total figure of around 1.95 million tonnes this year.

Demand in South Africa recovered from a dire situation twelve months ago to achieve stainless steelmaking tonnages in the third and fourth quarters which were higher than any recorded since the first half of 2007.

Production levels in Brazil also picked up in the latter part of 2009 but not sufficiently to prevent a fall of 13 percent compared to 2008. The rather different market conditions in India led to fairly stable output throughout last year.

Stainless production in China continued at close to capacity for most of 2009, although the mills cut back a little in the final two months in order to apply some control to year-end inventories. However, the annual outturn was still, as predicted, an all-time high of around 8.7 million tonnes. A more moderate growth in output of around 7.9 percent is forecast for 2010.
[MEPS news]