24. Feb. 2010
SINGAPORE - Gold regained some ground on Wednesday as the euro bounced higher against the U.S. dollar and bargain hunters resurfaced, but weakness in other commodities is likely to cap gains as investors cut exposure to risky assets.
Investors, who ditched gold in favor of the dollar after the release of poor U.S. confidence data, are shifting their focus to Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, whose testimony before the Congress on Wednesday and Thursday may set the tone for the U.S. currency.
Spot gold was at $1,106.20 an ounce by 0622 GMT, up $3.25 from New York's notional close on Tuesday, when safe-haven dollar jumped after U.S. consumer confidence sagged to a 10-month low and ignited worries about demand for commodities.
Low volumes meant that bullion was prone to sharp movements but dealers noted buying interest from jewelry makers in parts of Asia. Gold was around 2 percent below a 1-month high around $1,130 an ounce hit on Monday.
"It looks like there's some buying around these levels. But Bernanke has a speech tonight and tomorrow, so nobody wants to commit too much," said Ronald Leung, director of Lee Cheong Gold Dealers in Hong Kong.
"I think for this week trading is still range-bound at $1,100 to $1,130. Sentiment is flat. It's neither bullish nor bearish," he added.
U.S. gold futures for April delivery added $3.8 an ounce to $1,107 an ounce after falling almost $10 in late trade on Tuesday. The contract rallied to a 1-month high on Monday.
The euro firmed to $1.3544 but the currency was still under pressure from an unexpected dip in the German Ifo index of business sentiment, lower French household spending data as well as weaker Italian consumer confidence.
Stocks .SPX and commodities .CRB dropped, pulling down higher-yielding currencies like the Australian and New Zealand dollars after data showed U.S. consumer confidence fell in February.
Oil, cocoa and sugar had tumbled on Tuesday, leading commodities lower, on weak U.S. consumer confidence data and as German business sentiment fell too. A strong dollar also put pressure on commodities denominated in the U.S. currency.
Despite some early buying, activity in the physical market had yet to pick up in Asia after the Chinese New Year celebration in the middle of February.
"I think they will restart the business later this week. If the price stays at these levels, we could see some improvement in demand," said a dealer in Hong Kong.
"But I guess movements in gold have been closely related to the dollar lately," he added.
The world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust, said its holdings stood at 1,106.987 tonnes as of February 23, down 0.914 tonnes from the previous business day.
China is unlikely to buy 191.3 tonnes of gold being offered for sale by the International Monetary Fund, the China Daily reported on Wednesday, citing an unnamed official from the China Gold Association.
[Reuters]
Showing posts with label Gold. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Gold. Show all posts
Oil and gold prices surge
17. February. 2010
NEW YORK: Global stocks surged on Tuesday, lifted by upbeat results from British bank Barclay's and strong New York State factory data, while the euro posted its biggest gain versus the dollar since late November on bets the currency had fallen too far over Greece's financial woes.
US and European equities rose about 1 percent, helping to rekindle risk appetite among investors.
The weak dollar pushed up commodity prices, with crude oil rising about 4 percent and gold hitting a two-week high, up almost 2 percent. Copper, a barometer for global industrial demand, jumped to its highest level in more than two weeks.
The euro's gains were limited, however, as sentiment toward the single currency remained broadly negative because of doubts that Greece's debt problems will be resolved quickly.
The euro advanced more than 1 percent against the dollar to hit a session high of $1.3775.
By early afternoon Tuesday, benchmark crude for March delivery had risen $2.87 to $77 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent crude was up $3.20 at $75.71 on the ICE futures exchange.
Gold prices rose as investors bought the metal to hedge against financial risk in the euro zone, and as the euro rose versus the dollar.
Spot gold prices rose $16.50 to $1,117.00 an ounce.
[arab news]
NEW YORK: Global stocks surged on Tuesday, lifted by upbeat results from British bank Barclay's and strong New York State factory data, while the euro posted its biggest gain versus the dollar since late November on bets the currency had fallen too far over Greece's financial woes.
US and European equities rose about 1 percent, helping to rekindle risk appetite among investors.
The weak dollar pushed up commodity prices, with crude oil rising about 4 percent and gold hitting a two-week high, up almost 2 percent. Copper, a barometer for global industrial demand, jumped to its highest level in more than two weeks.
The euro's gains were limited, however, as sentiment toward the single currency remained broadly negative because of doubts that Greece's debt problems will be resolved quickly.
The euro advanced more than 1 percent against the dollar to hit a session high of $1.3775.
By early afternoon Tuesday, benchmark crude for March delivery had risen $2.87 to $77 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent crude was up $3.20 at $75.71 on the ICE futures exchange.
Gold prices rose as investors bought the metal to hedge against financial risk in the euro zone, and as the euro rose versus the dollar.
Spot gold prices rose $16.50 to $1,117.00 an ounce.
[arab news]
Gold Futures Should Target 1,125.00
16. February. 2010
Gold futures took a break this past week from their recent declines and broke back into their longer rising trend line and through the Jan. 28 low at 1,073.95 to close the week higher at 1,093.30.
For a chart of gold futures click here.
Gold futures still retain their broader downside bias, but the immediate risk is higher, and futures could target the Feb. 3 high at 1,125.00. A cap is expected there, which would turn the commodity back down again.
However, if that level breaks, we could see more momentum build toward the Jan. 20 high at 1,141.48.
On the downside, the 1,093.95/1,093.30 levels, representing the Jan. 28 low/trend line support, will come in as the initial support. A cut through there would leave the commodity to target its 2010 low at 1,044.20. A clean break below there would resume the short-term downtrend toward the 1,030.85/1,026.55 levels, the March 2008 high/Oct. 28 low, and then the 986.67 level, the October 2009 low.
On the whole, although gold still retains its broader weakness, the correction of its declines from 1,266.00 to 1,044.20 has been triggered, suggesting further upside risks.
Gold futures took a break this past week from their recent declines and broke back into their longer rising trend line and through the Jan. 28 low at 1,073.95 to close the week higher at 1,093.30.
For a chart of gold futures click here.
Gold futures still retain their broader downside bias, but the immediate risk is higher, and futures could target the Feb. 3 high at 1,125.00. A cap is expected there, which would turn the commodity back down again.
However, if that level breaks, we could see more momentum build toward the Jan. 20 high at 1,141.48.
On the downside, the 1,093.95/1,093.30 levels, representing the Jan. 28 low/trend line support, will come in as the initial support. A cut through there would leave the commodity to target its 2010 low at 1,044.20. A clean break below there would resume the short-term downtrend toward the 1,030.85/1,026.55 levels, the March 2008 high/Oct. 28 low, and then the 986.67 level, the October 2009 low.
On the whole, although gold still retains its broader weakness, the correction of its declines from 1,266.00 to 1,044.20 has been triggered, suggesting further upside risks.
[FXTechstrategy, by: Mohammed Isah ]
Gold slides as China move boosts dollar
12. February. 2010
* Dollar rises versus euro as Greece bailout details awaited
* Gold re-establishes relationship with U.S. currency
* Toyota recall 'may hurt U.S. dealer sales'-dealerships
Gold was down 1 percent in Europe on Friday as the dollar hit a seven-month high versus a basket of currencies after China unveiled a surprise hike in commercial banks' reserve requirements.
The euro slipped to a nine-month low against the dollar after a European Union summit the previous day failed to quell investors' concerns on Greece, and as China's surprise monetary tightening hit assets seen as higher risk.
Spot gold was bid at $1,084.30 an ounce at 1317 GMT versus $1,095.85 late in New York on Thursday. In that session it hit a one-week high of $1,097.75 an ounce as investors bought the metal amid fears over the stability of paper currencies.
Michael Widmer, an analyst at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, said gold was coming under pressure as the dollar appreciated broadly on the back of the China news.
"We always see that when the markets sell off on the back of a macro event, gold sells off along with those," he added. "Metals are lower, equities are lower as well and gold is falling along with those."
U.S. gold futures for April delivery on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $13.20 to $1,081.00 an ounce.
The dollar hit its highest since late July against a basket of currencies on Friday after China surprised markets by raising commercial banks' reserve requirements.
Strength in the U.S. unit curbs gold's appeal as an alternative asset and makes dollar-priced commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies.
Other commodities also declined, with oil tumbling 2 percent to below $74 a barrel and base metals copper and zinc sliding nearly 3 percent at their lows.
European shares turned negative and U.S. stock futures pointed lower after China's central bank raised reserve requirements.
EURO-PRICED GOLD
Gold priced in euros performed particularly well on Thursday, rising 2.8 percent to a peak of 802.73 euros an ounce, within 10 euros of the record high it hit in December.
The metal steadied on Friday to 798.85 euros an ounce from 799.49 late in the last session, but from a technical viewpoint it is well positioned to make fresh gains, analysts said.
"Since early December, gold denominated in euros has been locked in a well-defined contracting range," said technical analysts at Barclays Capital. "Now that range is on the verge of giving way for a resumption of the larger bull trend.
"A break of 802 would confirm (this), pointing to a re-test of the 813 December high. However, this should prove to be only a temporary stopping point as the measured move... targets the 856 area before greater signs of topping emerge."
Elsewhere demand for gold-backed exchange-traded funds remained lacklustre, with holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, New York's SPDR Gold Trust, steady on Thursday, the trust said on its website.
Among other precious metals, silver was at $15.34 an ounce against $15.64. Platinum was at $1,496 an ounce against $1,528 and palladium at $412.50 against $419.50.
Toyota Motor Corp's safety recalls will hurt U.S. dealer sales in the first quarter, two major U.S. auto dealership groups said on Thursday.
Platinum and palladium are heavily exposed to the automotive market, as they are primarily consumed by carmakers for use in catalytic converters.
[Reuters]
* Dollar rises versus euro as Greece bailout details awaited
* Gold re-establishes relationship with U.S. currency
* Toyota recall 'may hurt U.S. dealer sales'-dealerships
Gold was down 1 percent in Europe on Friday as the dollar hit a seven-month high versus a basket of currencies after China unveiled a surprise hike in commercial banks' reserve requirements.
The euro slipped to a nine-month low against the dollar after a European Union summit the previous day failed to quell investors' concerns on Greece, and as China's surprise monetary tightening hit assets seen as higher risk.
Spot gold was bid at $1,084.30 an ounce at 1317 GMT versus $1,095.85 late in New York on Thursday. In that session it hit a one-week high of $1,097.75 an ounce as investors bought the metal amid fears over the stability of paper currencies.
Michael Widmer, an analyst at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, said gold was coming under pressure as the dollar appreciated broadly on the back of the China news.
"We always see that when the markets sell off on the back of a macro event, gold sells off along with those," he added. "Metals are lower, equities are lower as well and gold is falling along with those."
U.S. gold futures for April delivery on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $13.20 to $1,081.00 an ounce.
The dollar hit its highest since late July against a basket of currencies on Friday after China surprised markets by raising commercial banks' reserve requirements.
Strength in the U.S. unit curbs gold's appeal as an alternative asset and makes dollar-priced commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies.
Other commodities also declined, with oil tumbling 2 percent to below $74 a barrel and base metals copper and zinc sliding nearly 3 percent at their lows.
European shares turned negative and U.S. stock futures pointed lower after China's central bank raised reserve requirements.
EURO-PRICED GOLD
Gold priced in euros performed particularly well on Thursday, rising 2.8 percent to a peak of 802.73 euros an ounce, within 10 euros of the record high it hit in December.
The metal steadied on Friday to 798.85 euros an ounce from 799.49 late in the last session, but from a technical viewpoint it is well positioned to make fresh gains, analysts said.
"Since early December, gold denominated in euros has been locked in a well-defined contracting range," said technical analysts at Barclays Capital. "Now that range is on the verge of giving way for a resumption of the larger bull trend.
"A break of 802 would confirm (this), pointing to a re-test of the 813 December high. However, this should prove to be only a temporary stopping point as the measured move... targets the 856 area before greater signs of topping emerge."
Elsewhere demand for gold-backed exchange-traded funds remained lacklustre, with holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, New York's SPDR Gold Trust, steady on Thursday, the trust said on its website.
Among other precious metals, silver was at $15.34 an ounce against $15.64. Platinum was at $1,496 an ounce against $1,528 and palladium at $412.50 against $419.50.
Toyota Motor Corp's safety recalls will hurt U.S. dealer sales in the first quarter, two major U.S. auto dealership groups said on Thursday.
Platinum and palladium are heavily exposed to the automotive market, as they are primarily consumed by carmakers for use in catalytic converters.
[Reuters]
Gold near $1 075 an ounce as firmer US dollar caps gains
10. February. 2010
Reuters
Gold was little changed in Europe on Wednesday as a slight recovery in the dollar kept a lid on gains, with traders awaiting more details of a possible bailout package for Greece to give fresh direction to the markets.
Spot gold was bid at $1 076.15 (R8 297) an ounce at 12:01 SA time, against $1 076.95 late in New York on Tuesday.
US gold futures for April delivery on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange eased 90 cents to $1 075.80 an ounce.
Richcomm Global Services senior analyst Pradeep Unni said gold's heavy losses had introduced a weaker note in gold's technical position last week which persisted.
But he added: "The market is gaining momentum on hopes that Germany will provide loan guarantees in an effort to calm fears of a massive government default which has been directly undermining the strength of the euro-zone and its currency."
"Gold's upside potential clearly seems to be capped, with rallies likely to be used as fresh selling opportunities," he said.
"Expect pent-up physical demand to emerge on a price dip below $1 050."
The euro inched lower on Wednesday, relinquishing some gains made the previous day as the market braced for a European Union summit, speculating that member countries may help Greece tackle its fiscal problems.
The markets are also awaiting Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's testimony before the House Financial Services Committee hearing on unwinding Federal Reserve liquidity programmes at 5pm SA time.
The dollar rose last week versus the euro as worries over the health of some euro zone economies hurt the single currency.
Strength in the US unit curbs gold's appeal as an alternative asset and makes dollar-priced commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies.
OIL SLIPS
Among other commodities, oil fell towards $73 a barrel, weighed down by worries about weak demand in the world's top consumers after data showed a large build in US crude inventories and a fall in Chinese imports.
On the wider markets, world stocks rose and European shares were led higher by financial stocks as sentiment improved on signs the European Union may arrange a bailout for troubled Greece. But traders remain nervous.
"As yet, optimism has not proven sufficient to tip the balance...in favour of risk trades, and there is an understandable degree of nervousness that the Greece 'solution' will prove underwhelming," said Credit Agricole CIB in a note.
"So, it looks like a day of treading water until we get new disclosures regarding Greece."
On the physical side, Indian gold demand tailed off as prices recovered, while holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust exchange-traded fund were unchanged.
Among other precious metals, silver was at $15.46 an ounce against $15.41, platinum at $1 496 an ounce against $1 502, and palladium at $410.50 against $415.
"Key near-term support is seen from seven-month trendlines in palladium and platinum at $386 and $1 468, respectively," Barclays Capital said in a note.
"Breaks here would likely prove to be the catalyst for the next leg of precious metal weakness."
Reuters
Gold was little changed in Europe on Wednesday as a slight recovery in the dollar kept a lid on gains, with traders awaiting more details of a possible bailout package for Greece to give fresh direction to the markets.
Spot gold was bid at $1 076.15 (R8 297) an ounce at 12:01 SA time, against $1 076.95 late in New York on Tuesday.
US gold futures for April delivery on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange eased 90 cents to $1 075.80 an ounce.
Richcomm Global Services senior analyst Pradeep Unni said gold's heavy losses had introduced a weaker note in gold's technical position last week which persisted.
But he added: "The market is gaining momentum on hopes that Germany will provide loan guarantees in an effort to calm fears of a massive government default which has been directly undermining the strength of the euro-zone and its currency."
"Gold's upside potential clearly seems to be capped, with rallies likely to be used as fresh selling opportunities," he said.
"Expect pent-up physical demand to emerge on a price dip below $1 050."
The euro inched lower on Wednesday, relinquishing some gains made the previous day as the market braced for a European Union summit, speculating that member countries may help Greece tackle its fiscal problems.
The markets are also awaiting Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's testimony before the House Financial Services Committee hearing on unwinding Federal Reserve liquidity programmes at 5pm SA time.
The dollar rose last week versus the euro as worries over the health of some euro zone economies hurt the single currency.
Strength in the US unit curbs gold's appeal as an alternative asset and makes dollar-priced commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies.
OIL SLIPS
Among other commodities, oil fell towards $73 a barrel, weighed down by worries about weak demand in the world's top consumers after data showed a large build in US crude inventories and a fall in Chinese imports.
On the wider markets, world stocks rose and European shares were led higher by financial stocks as sentiment improved on signs the European Union may arrange a bailout for troubled Greece. But traders remain nervous.
"As yet, optimism has not proven sufficient to tip the balance...in favour of risk trades, and there is an understandable degree of nervousness that the Greece 'solution' will prove underwhelming," said Credit Agricole CIB in a note.
"So, it looks like a day of treading water until we get new disclosures regarding Greece."
On the physical side, Indian gold demand tailed off as prices recovered, while holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust exchange-traded fund were unchanged.
Among other precious metals, silver was at $15.46 an ounce against $15.41, platinum at $1 496 an ounce against $1 502, and palladium at $410.50 against $415.
"Key near-term support is seen from seven-month trendlines in palladium and platinum at $386 and $1 468, respectively," Barclays Capital said in a note.
"Breaks here would likely prove to be the catalyst for the next leg of precious metal weakness."
Gold and S&P 500 psychology: they bail, we buy
9. February. 2010
Stockhouse (by: Chris Vermeulen)
** Successful traders trade against the prevailing market sentiment **
Understanding market psychology is crucial for a trader’s success. But so many people get caught up in the daily market volatility, media coverage and “noise” of the trading environment, it’s almost impossible to not think and trade in agreement with the majority of traders.
However, effective technical analysis allows us to use trends, patterns and other indicators to evaluate the market's current psychological state. Fortunately, this analysis can both enable us to independently forecast whether the market is heading in an upward or downward trend and do so against the grain of the majority.
It takes a disciplined trader to be able to watch and listen to the market doing one thing, filter out the noise, then do the opposite - all in a controlled manor. To this day I still find myself fighting the herd mentality at times and that is when I step away from the computer and regroup.
I have a simple rule that has saved me thousands over the years. I would rather miss a trade and learn what caused me to get confused, then to take a loss.
Rule # 1 - when in doubt, stay out!
There are two types of traders:
Herd Mentality Trader – Someone who trades off fear and greed buying near tops and panic selling out at the bottom with the masses.
Black Sheep Trader – A trader who stands apart from the masses and trades opposite to the herd during extreme levels.
Last week’s market action really allowed us to see which way the masses were moving. The extremely high selling volume and sharp price decline notified us that the market was trading off FEAR. And, last Thursday we actually saw PANIC which tells us the balance of the market (retail investors, John Does, the “Herd”) were exiting their positions.
When we see this happen, it’s generally a good time to start scaling into long positions, as most of the down side has already happened.
I have been talking about an ABC retrace pattern for the indexes and gold for some time and last week we got just that. An ABC retrace is when we have three waves which are: down, small up, then another leg down.
In short this wave breaks the uptrend of higher highs and lows, as it forms a lower low telling novice traders to sell and go short. This is what causes the high volume and sharp sell offs.
Below are a few charts showing the 2009 July lows and where we are now: February 2010:
S&P 500 – daily trading chart
S&P 500 – daily trading chart
S&P 500 – daily trading chart
S&P 500 – daily trading chart
Intraday Price Action – If you want to see some exciting intraday trading charts check out the setups last week.
Market psychology trading conclusion:
Most get involved with the stock market because it looks like something they can quickly learn and start making money from home. But it doesn’t take long before they quickly realize there is more to trading than meets the eye.
While trading looks easy from a glance, in actuality I think it’s one of the toughest jobs out there.
Why? Well, this is what you are up against:
You are trying to predict something that is unpredictable.
You are trading against millions of other highly skilled traders.
You are trading against automated computers using complex algorithms .
You are trading with your hard earned money which causes fear and greed.
You must accept losing trades as that is part of the business.
You must trade with a proven trading strategy and follow the system.
You must understand money management and apply it to every trade.
You must truly love the market because it will break you down mentally .
I don’t want to say you must be a contrarian, but in reality you must do the opposite of the masses during times of extreme price behavior.
These extremes happen on a daily basis when trading intraday charts and every 4-6 weeks when looking at daily charts. The toughest part is to pull the trigger when emotions are flying high in the market and you are looking to do the opposite. It takes several trades before you even start to get comfortable doing this.
I hope this helps shed some light on market psychology.
If you would like to receive my Trading Newsletter and Analysis please visit my website: http://www.goldandoilguy.com/
Stockhouse (by: Chris Vermeulen)
** Successful traders trade against the prevailing market sentiment **
Understanding market psychology is crucial for a trader’s success. But so many people get caught up in the daily market volatility, media coverage and “noise” of the trading environment, it’s almost impossible to not think and trade in agreement with the majority of traders.
However, effective technical analysis allows us to use trends, patterns and other indicators to evaluate the market's current psychological state. Fortunately, this analysis can both enable us to independently forecast whether the market is heading in an upward or downward trend and do so against the grain of the majority.
It takes a disciplined trader to be able to watch and listen to the market doing one thing, filter out the noise, then do the opposite - all in a controlled manor. To this day I still find myself fighting the herd mentality at times and that is when I step away from the computer and regroup.
I have a simple rule that has saved me thousands over the years. I would rather miss a trade and learn what caused me to get confused, then to take a loss.
Rule # 1 - when in doubt, stay out!
There are two types of traders:
Herd Mentality Trader – Someone who trades off fear and greed buying near tops and panic selling out at the bottom with the masses.
Black Sheep Trader – A trader who stands apart from the masses and trades opposite to the herd during extreme levels.
Last week’s market action really allowed us to see which way the masses were moving. The extremely high selling volume and sharp price decline notified us that the market was trading off FEAR. And, last Thursday we actually saw PANIC which tells us the balance of the market (retail investors, John Does, the “Herd”) were exiting their positions.
When we see this happen, it’s generally a good time to start scaling into long positions, as most of the down side has already happened.
I have been talking about an ABC retrace pattern for the indexes and gold for some time and last week we got just that. An ABC retrace is when we have three waves which are: down, small up, then another leg down.
In short this wave breaks the uptrend of higher highs and lows, as it forms a lower low telling novice traders to sell and go short. This is what causes the high volume and sharp sell offs.
Below are a few charts showing the 2009 July lows and where we are now: February 2010:
S&P 500 – daily trading chart
S&P 500 – daily trading chart
S&P 500 – daily trading chart
S&P 500 – daily trading chart
Intraday Price Action – If you want to see some exciting intraday trading charts check out the setups last week.
Market psychology trading conclusion:
Most get involved with the stock market because it looks like something they can quickly learn and start making money from home. But it doesn’t take long before they quickly realize there is more to trading than meets the eye.
While trading looks easy from a glance, in actuality I think it’s one of the toughest jobs out there.
Why? Well, this is what you are up against:
You are trying to predict something that is unpredictable.
You are trading against millions of other highly skilled traders.
You are trading against automated computers using complex algorithms .
You are trading with your hard earned money which causes fear and greed.
You must accept losing trades as that is part of the business.
You must trade with a proven trading strategy and follow the system.
You must understand money management and apply it to every trade.
You must truly love the market because it will break you down mentally .
I don’t want to say you must be a contrarian, but in reality you must do the opposite of the masses during times of extreme price behavior.
These extremes happen on a daily basis when trading intraday charts and every 4-6 weeks when looking at daily charts. The toughest part is to pull the trigger when emotions are flying high in the market and you are looking to do the opposite. It takes several trades before you even start to get comfortable doing this.
I hope this helps shed some light on market psychology.
If you would like to receive my Trading Newsletter and Analysis please visit my website: http://www.goldandoilguy.com/
Intermediate gold miner aims for a one million ounce minimum
9. February. 2010
BNWnews.ca (by: Marc Davis)
These are boom times for Vancouver-headquartered New Gold Inc. Indeed, this emerging mid-tier gold producer has gone from strength to strength over the last couple of years. The company even posted record annual production of more than 301,000 gold ounces for 2009. Remarkably, this has happened against a backdrop of the worst financial crisis in over 70 years, as well as a deep and protracted recession.
So what is New Gold’s secret to success amid the wreckage of North America’s pronounced economic malaise? By committing the company to an aggressive growth strategy, mostly by way of acquisitions, it has been able to continuously ratchet up gold output in a rising tide environment for bullion prices.
In hindsight, this strategy seems deceptively simple. But it has required impeccable timing and the vision to understand that New Gold will only truly shine when it reaches a certain critical mass. This involves reaching the milestone of a minimum output of one million gold ounces in per annum, which New Gold intends to reach by 2012. And the fastest way to get there so far has been by way of buying out other small emerging gold producers.
This has been the company’s modus operandi since mid 2008, when it acquired two other gold mining juniors – Metallica Resources and Peak Gold – in a friendly merger valued at $1.6 billion. In so doing, New Gold has since then made the quantum leap from being an aspiring gold miner in 2007 with no output to a formidable gold aggregator with three globally diversified mines in operation just two years later.
They include the open pit, ‘heap leach’ (inexpensive to run) Cerro San Pedro gold-silver mine in central Mexico, as well as the underground Peaks Mine is in southern Australia, and the most-recently acquired Mesquite open pit, heap leach mine in southern California. All of which are on-target to produce up to 360,000 gold ounces in 2010.
Last summer’s $280 million merger with Western Goldfields – the former owner of the Mesquite mine – should continue to add up to an additional 150,000 ounces to New Gold’s combined annual output. And this nearly doubling of New Gold’s revenues will act as a big boost to the company’s bottom line, according to the company’s hard-driving but soft-spoken CEO, Bob Gallagher. And such exponential growth is resonating very favorably with the investment community.
“Our share price has doubled since our transaction with Western Goldfields. So our financial ratios have gotten much, much stronger, which means that there are a much broader number of potential targets that we can acquire,” Gallagher recently told BNWnews.ca
“Growth is good as bigger companies tend to receive better valuations than smaller companies but the real growth comes when you can acquire an undervalued asset. So your growth on a per share basis is accretive (it acquires greater value per share). That’s what we’re targeting. And we accomplished that in a huge way with Western Goldfields. But we’ll continue to pursue other opportunities out there when we find the right assets.”
In recent developments, New Gold stuck a strategic joint venture deal in January involving its 30% stake in the sizeable Chilean El Morro deposit, which hosts 6.7 million ounces of gold and 5.7 billion pounds of copper. New Gold now has a new partner in the guise of world’s fifth largest gold producer, Goldcorp The latter beat out the dominant player in the gold mining business, Barrick Gold in a fight to snatch up El Morro’s rich gold assets.
This comes after a high-stakes bidding war to buy out the project’s former majority owner, Xstrata Plc. In return for supporting Goldcorp’s bid, the mining heavyweight has agreed to a $50 million up-front cash payment to New Gold, as well as waiving New Gold’s estimated $225 million portion of the overall cost of building the mine.
Meanwhile, Gallagher concedes that his company still has a long way to go before reaching the much-envied status of a well-established mid-tier producer, which represents the Holy Grail for all emerging gold producers. That’s because the mid-tier status offers major strategic and competitive advantages, he says.
“There’s a space in the gold industry that we call an intermediate space, which are producers in the half million ounce to two million ounce range. What’s special about that intermediate space is the big potential for growth,” Gallagher says.
“By comparison, large gold companies seem to struggle to maintain production and to maintain their reserve base. Also, smaller companies generally are not of much interest to most investors due to a lack of liquidity. So, where growth and value are best offered is in that intermediate space where you can continue to grow.”
“That’s the space we entered in 2008. We did a three-way consolidation of single mine producers last year,” he adds by alluding to New Gold’s acquisition of Metallica Resources and Peak Mines. “Last year we added a fourth company with Western Goldfields. So we’ve grown from a collection of less than 100,000-ounce producers to approximately a 300,000-ounce producer.”
“We also have an asset that we’re building in Kamloops (the New Afton project in southern British Columbia) that will add about another 100,000 ounces, which gets us nearly half way to that million ounce target. We think we can get to a million ounces by 2012. We’ll do that by incremental growth in our existing assets and continue our consolidation of producing mines. As an intermediate, we will then continue to consolidate junior producers.”
In other words, Gallagher has no intention of taking his foot off the accelerator any time soon. Especially since he envisions even more lustrous times ahead for gold prices as the yellow metal continues to act as an inverse proxy to the increasingly anemic U.S. dollar.
“More and more people are investing ingold as a currency and as protection against today’s financial issues. When you look at the overhang in U.S. dollars that countries like China have accumulated and the ongoing deficits that the U.S. is incurring, I think there is a strong case to be made for countries and banks switching from U.S. dollar reserves to commodities like gold. We’re already starting to see it with China,” he says.
“So for a number of reasons gold is going to continue to strengthen as we move forward. In fact, I think we’re in a very exciting sector of the cycle. Whereas commodities like gold tend to have cycles in the 10-year range, we’re probably only in about year six. So the fundamentals are very favorable for continued growth in gold pricing.”
Investors who want to get the maximum leverage from rising gold prices are better off buying gold mining stocks than gold bullion, according to Gallagher. For instance, it’s easier at this stage to envision a modestly priced, expansion-oriented emerging gold producer to double in price within the next year than it is to imagine bullion’s spot price rising to over $2,000 during this time frame.
“Emerging mid-tier gold producers by far represent the best investment opportunities. Right now this space is more or less empty as previous intermediate gold companies have moved on to become major mining companies. The most recent examples would be Kinross and Agnico Gold Eagle. And Goldcorp and Barrick Gold are great past examples.”
Gallagher believes that the relative absence of mid tier gold producers – of which there are currently only a tiny handful – means that New Gold will have meager competition from its peers in the quest to continue to absorb other junior gold miners.
“Because we’ve got a great solid foundation of assets generating cash flow and a great balance sheet and a strong proven board and management, I believe we really are the ‘go to’ consolidator,” Gallagher adds.
Ultimately the absorption of gold mining juniors by larger companies is beneficial for the industry and for investors, alike, Gallagher assets.
“The issue is small companies with single producing assets are not attractive investments. Over this last bull run for gold you’ve seen the share prices of intermediates and the seniors appreciate significantly. The juniors haven’t,” he says.
“That’s because the juniors primarily have a lack of liquidity and limited market capitalization. Serious investors can’t move in and out of them; so they shy away from them. Single asset producers also have good quarters and bad quarters and don’t have the benefit of the portfolio effect that comes with having a number of producing assets,” he adds.
“Furthermore, new emerging single asset producers struggle when they come out of the exploration stage and into production. They generally have tended to disappoint the (stock) market and don’t live up to expectations.”
Having recently received a solid endorsement from the financial community by way of the completion of a Cdn. $115 million equity financing, New Gold now has a more than adequate war chest to continue along a steep growth curve. (The company already had $140 million in its treasury). That also translates into more acquisitions without compromising the company’s commitment to commercialize its in-development New Afton mine, which is scheduled to produce 85 million gold ounces and 75 million pounds of copper per year, starting in 2012.
“New Afton has all of our existing cash committed. So when we wanted to grow by way of acquisitions we have been really limited to projects that are already producing cash,” Gallagher says.
“With this $115 million in cash, it broadens the expanse of opportunities that we have. For instance, we can now acquire near-production projects, which need a little more cash to get them over the hump. And you always add more value when you take something from pre-production into production. So with a stronger balance sheet, this further broadens our list of potential takeovers.”
“In five years time I think we’ll be through a million ounces. And I think you’ll see us with six or seven mines and a much stronger pipeline of mine development projects. Also, you’ll see the actual quality of producing assets going up-market,” Gallagher says.
“Again, it’s a historical reality that when companies build themselves this way you start with reasonable assets and then as you strengthen you are able to acquire better and better assets. And that translates into lower cost producers.”
BNWnews.ca (by: Marc Davis)
These are boom times for Vancouver-headquartered New Gold Inc. Indeed, this emerging mid-tier gold producer has gone from strength to strength over the last couple of years. The company even posted record annual production of more than 301,000 gold ounces for 2009. Remarkably, this has happened against a backdrop of the worst financial crisis in over 70 years, as well as a deep and protracted recession.
So what is New Gold’s secret to success amid the wreckage of North America’s pronounced economic malaise? By committing the company to an aggressive growth strategy, mostly by way of acquisitions, it has been able to continuously ratchet up gold output in a rising tide environment for bullion prices.
In hindsight, this strategy seems deceptively simple. But it has required impeccable timing and the vision to understand that New Gold will only truly shine when it reaches a certain critical mass. This involves reaching the milestone of a minimum output of one million gold ounces in per annum, which New Gold intends to reach by 2012. And the fastest way to get there so far has been by way of buying out other small emerging gold producers.
This has been the company’s modus operandi since mid 2008, when it acquired two other gold mining juniors – Metallica Resources and Peak Gold – in a friendly merger valued at $1.6 billion. In so doing, New Gold has since then made the quantum leap from being an aspiring gold miner in 2007 with no output to a formidable gold aggregator with three globally diversified mines in operation just two years later.
They include the open pit, ‘heap leach’ (inexpensive to run) Cerro San Pedro gold-silver mine in central Mexico, as well as the underground Peaks Mine is in southern Australia, and the most-recently acquired Mesquite open pit, heap leach mine in southern California. All of which are on-target to produce up to 360,000 gold ounces in 2010.
Last summer’s $280 million merger with Western Goldfields – the former owner of the Mesquite mine – should continue to add up to an additional 150,000 ounces to New Gold’s combined annual output. And this nearly doubling of New Gold’s revenues will act as a big boost to the company’s bottom line, according to the company’s hard-driving but soft-spoken CEO, Bob Gallagher. And such exponential growth is resonating very favorably with the investment community.
“Our share price has doubled since our transaction with Western Goldfields. So our financial ratios have gotten much, much stronger, which means that there are a much broader number of potential targets that we can acquire,” Gallagher recently told BNWnews.ca
“Growth is good as bigger companies tend to receive better valuations than smaller companies but the real growth comes when you can acquire an undervalued asset. So your growth on a per share basis is accretive (it acquires greater value per share). That’s what we’re targeting. And we accomplished that in a huge way with Western Goldfields. But we’ll continue to pursue other opportunities out there when we find the right assets.”
In recent developments, New Gold stuck a strategic joint venture deal in January involving its 30% stake in the sizeable Chilean El Morro deposit, which hosts 6.7 million ounces of gold and 5.7 billion pounds of copper. New Gold now has a new partner in the guise of world’s fifth largest gold producer, Goldcorp The latter beat out the dominant player in the gold mining business, Barrick Gold in a fight to snatch up El Morro’s rich gold assets.
This comes after a high-stakes bidding war to buy out the project’s former majority owner, Xstrata Plc. In return for supporting Goldcorp’s bid, the mining heavyweight has agreed to a $50 million up-front cash payment to New Gold, as well as waiving New Gold’s estimated $225 million portion of the overall cost of building the mine.
Meanwhile, Gallagher concedes that his company still has a long way to go before reaching the much-envied status of a well-established mid-tier producer, which represents the Holy Grail for all emerging gold producers. That’s because the mid-tier status offers major strategic and competitive advantages, he says.
“There’s a space in the gold industry that we call an intermediate space, which are producers in the half million ounce to two million ounce range. What’s special about that intermediate space is the big potential for growth,” Gallagher says.
“By comparison, large gold companies seem to struggle to maintain production and to maintain their reserve base. Also, smaller companies generally are not of much interest to most investors due to a lack of liquidity. So, where growth and value are best offered is in that intermediate space where you can continue to grow.”
“That’s the space we entered in 2008. We did a three-way consolidation of single mine producers last year,” he adds by alluding to New Gold’s acquisition of Metallica Resources and Peak Mines. “Last year we added a fourth company with Western Goldfields. So we’ve grown from a collection of less than 100,000-ounce producers to approximately a 300,000-ounce producer.”
“We also have an asset that we’re building in Kamloops (the New Afton project in southern British Columbia) that will add about another 100,000 ounces, which gets us nearly half way to that million ounce target. We think we can get to a million ounces by 2012. We’ll do that by incremental growth in our existing assets and continue our consolidation of producing mines. As an intermediate, we will then continue to consolidate junior producers.”
In other words, Gallagher has no intention of taking his foot off the accelerator any time soon. Especially since he envisions even more lustrous times ahead for gold prices as the yellow metal continues to act as an inverse proxy to the increasingly anemic U.S. dollar.
“More and more people are investing ingold as a currency and as protection against today’s financial issues. When you look at the overhang in U.S. dollars that countries like China have accumulated and the ongoing deficits that the U.S. is incurring, I think there is a strong case to be made for countries and banks switching from U.S. dollar reserves to commodities like gold. We’re already starting to see it with China,” he says.
“So for a number of reasons gold is going to continue to strengthen as we move forward. In fact, I think we’re in a very exciting sector of the cycle. Whereas commodities like gold tend to have cycles in the 10-year range, we’re probably only in about year six. So the fundamentals are very favorable for continued growth in gold pricing.”
Investors who want to get the maximum leverage from rising gold prices are better off buying gold mining stocks than gold bullion, according to Gallagher. For instance, it’s easier at this stage to envision a modestly priced, expansion-oriented emerging gold producer to double in price within the next year than it is to imagine bullion’s spot price rising to over $2,000 during this time frame.
“Emerging mid-tier gold producers by far represent the best investment opportunities. Right now this space is more or less empty as previous intermediate gold companies have moved on to become major mining companies. The most recent examples would be Kinross and Agnico Gold Eagle. And Goldcorp and Barrick Gold are great past examples.”
Gallagher believes that the relative absence of mid tier gold producers – of which there are currently only a tiny handful – means that New Gold will have meager competition from its peers in the quest to continue to absorb other junior gold miners.
“Because we’ve got a great solid foundation of assets generating cash flow and a great balance sheet and a strong proven board and management, I believe we really are the ‘go to’ consolidator,” Gallagher adds.
Ultimately the absorption of gold mining juniors by larger companies is beneficial for the industry and for investors, alike, Gallagher assets.
“The issue is small companies with single producing assets are not attractive investments. Over this last bull run for gold you’ve seen the share prices of intermediates and the seniors appreciate significantly. The juniors haven’t,” he says.
“That’s because the juniors primarily have a lack of liquidity and limited market capitalization. Serious investors can’t move in and out of them; so they shy away from them. Single asset producers also have good quarters and bad quarters and don’t have the benefit of the portfolio effect that comes with having a number of producing assets,” he adds.
“Furthermore, new emerging single asset producers struggle when they come out of the exploration stage and into production. They generally have tended to disappoint the (stock) market and don’t live up to expectations.”
Having recently received a solid endorsement from the financial community by way of the completion of a Cdn. $115 million equity financing, New Gold now has a more than adequate war chest to continue along a steep growth curve. (The company already had $140 million in its treasury). That also translates into more acquisitions without compromising the company’s commitment to commercialize its in-development New Afton mine, which is scheduled to produce 85 million gold ounces and 75 million pounds of copper per year, starting in 2012.
“New Afton has all of our existing cash committed. So when we wanted to grow by way of acquisitions we have been really limited to projects that are already producing cash,” Gallagher says.
“With this $115 million in cash, it broadens the expanse of opportunities that we have. For instance, we can now acquire near-production projects, which need a little more cash to get them over the hump. And you always add more value when you take something from pre-production into production. So with a stronger balance sheet, this further broadens our list of potential takeovers.”
“In five years time I think we’ll be through a million ounces. And I think you’ll see us with six or seven mines and a much stronger pipeline of mine development projects. Also, you’ll see the actual quality of producing assets going up-market,” Gallagher says.
“Again, it’s a historical reality that when companies build themselves this way you start with reasonable assets and then as you strengthen you are able to acquire better and better assets. And that translates into lower cost producers.”
Gold posts biggest one-day loss since 2008
5. February. 2010
Reuters
Gold posted its biggest one-day loss since 2008 on Thursday, hitting a three-month low as a wave of risk aversion swept through global markets, triggering massive technical selling in the metal.
Bullion tumbled more than 4 percent in heavy trade, briefly falling below $1,060 an ounce as escalating sovereign debt fears in Europe prompted investors to bid up the dollar and unload riskier assets.
Other precious metals also fell. Silver slid nearly 7 percent to its lowest since September, platinum dropped more than 4 percent and palladium fell 6 percent.
Scott Meyers, senior analyst at Pioneer Futures, a unit of MF Global, said gold has slid below technical support levels.
"There is not a lot of technical support in gold right now. It is more of a function of how the market reacts to whatever stimulus is forcing the market lower right now," Meyers said.
Risk-averse economic sentiment pummeled world stock markets, pressuring gold, oil and other commodities.
Wall Street fell more than 3 percent on an unexpected increase in the number of Americans claiming jobless benefits, and as fiscal worries in euro-zone countries led investors to buy safe-haven U.S. Treasury debt.
Spot gold hit a low of $1,059.10 an ounce, the weakest since November 3. It was last at $1,064.30 an ounce at 4:07 p.m. EST, sharply lower than $1,108.85 late on Wednesday.
Spot bullion's 4.2 percent decline was its biggest one-day percentage loss since December 1, 2008, when it tumbled 5.6 percent, Reuters data showed.
U.S. gold futures for April delivery settled down $49 at $1,063 on the COMEX division of the NYMEX.
"If you are short, you stay short, because there is no real reason to be a buyer unless the market sold off more," said Rick Bensignor, chief market strategist at broker-dealer Execution LLC.
The euro plunged to a seven-month low against the dollar. European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet predicted many members in the bloc will have large, sharply rising fiscal imbalances.
Strength in the U.S. dollar makes dollar-priced commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies.
Among other commodities, oil prices fell nearly $4 to about $73 a barrel amid a global sell-off, as Reuters-Jefferies CRB index .CRB also fell 2.5 percent.
TECHNCIALLY VULNERABLE
The sharp decline sent spot gold well below its 14-, 50- and 100-day moving averages. Technical analysts said gold could fall further after the sell-off pushed it below major support levels, but it should hold above $1,000 an ounce.
With U.S. January non-farm payrolls data due Friday, all eyes will focus on whether the jobs report will rejuvenate gold through its influence on the dollar.
"This is a broken chart, at least short term. Unless tomorrow's job numbers somehow change the entire picture on the dollar and gold turns around, I am in the bear camp here," Bensignor said.
The world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, New York's SPDR Gold Trust on Wednesday reported its first outflow this month. Its holdings declined 1.6 tonnes that day, after falling 21.7 tonnes in January.
In other precious metals, silver touched a low of $15.16, lowest since September, tracking gold's losses, and was last at $15.26 an ounce against $16.34. Platinum was at $1,504.50 an ounce versus $1,572.50, and palladium at $408 versus $434.50.
Reuters
Gold posted its biggest one-day loss since 2008 on Thursday, hitting a three-month low as a wave of risk aversion swept through global markets, triggering massive technical selling in the metal.
Bullion tumbled more than 4 percent in heavy trade, briefly falling below $1,060 an ounce as escalating sovereign debt fears in Europe prompted investors to bid up the dollar and unload riskier assets.
Other precious metals also fell. Silver slid nearly 7 percent to its lowest since September, platinum dropped more than 4 percent and palladium fell 6 percent.
Scott Meyers, senior analyst at Pioneer Futures, a unit of MF Global, said gold has slid below technical support levels.
"There is not a lot of technical support in gold right now. It is more of a function of how the market reacts to whatever stimulus is forcing the market lower right now," Meyers said.
Risk-averse economic sentiment pummeled world stock markets, pressuring gold, oil and other commodities.
Wall Street fell more than 3 percent on an unexpected increase in the number of Americans claiming jobless benefits, and as fiscal worries in euro-zone countries led investors to buy safe-haven U.S. Treasury debt.
Spot gold hit a low of $1,059.10 an ounce, the weakest since November 3. It was last at $1,064.30 an ounce at 4:07 p.m. EST, sharply lower than $1,108.85 late on Wednesday.
Spot bullion's 4.2 percent decline was its biggest one-day percentage loss since December 1, 2008, when it tumbled 5.6 percent, Reuters data showed.
U.S. gold futures for April delivery settled down $49 at $1,063 on the COMEX division of the NYMEX.
"If you are short, you stay short, because there is no real reason to be a buyer unless the market sold off more," said Rick Bensignor, chief market strategist at broker-dealer Execution LLC.
The euro plunged to a seven-month low against the dollar. European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet predicted many members in the bloc will have large, sharply rising fiscal imbalances.
Strength in the U.S. dollar makes dollar-priced commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies.
Among other commodities, oil prices fell nearly $4 to about $73 a barrel amid a global sell-off, as Reuters-Jefferies CRB index .CRB also fell 2.5 percent.
TECHNCIALLY VULNERABLE
The sharp decline sent spot gold well below its 14-, 50- and 100-day moving averages. Technical analysts said gold could fall further after the sell-off pushed it below major support levels, but it should hold above $1,000 an ounce.
With U.S. January non-farm payrolls data due Friday, all eyes will focus on whether the jobs report will rejuvenate gold through its influence on the dollar.
"This is a broken chart, at least short term. Unless tomorrow's job numbers somehow change the entire picture on the dollar and gold turns around, I am in the bear camp here," Bensignor said.
The world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, New York's SPDR Gold Trust on Wednesday reported its first outflow this month. Its holdings declined 1.6 tonnes that day, after falling 21.7 tonnes in January.
In other precious metals, silver touched a low of $15.16, lowest since September, tracking gold's losses, and was last at $15.26 an ounce against $16.34. Platinum was at $1,504.50 an ounce versus $1,572.50, and palladium at $408 versus $434.50.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)








